The decision of any electorate to reelect the current presidential
incumbent is usually contingent on his or her performance on important
issues such as economic development, social justice, and foreign policy.
Though the domestic economy has been the deciding factor in most U.S.
presidential races, the Republican Party elevated September 11th and
Homeland Security to the top of its political agenda in 2002 congressional
campaign, based on which it won the Senate. Given its previous success and
the recent increase in poll ratings post Saddam's capture, it is likely to
feature prominently in the 2004 elections as well. While one more,
unfortunate terrorist incident may well swing public opinion overwhelmingly
in favor of Bush and the Republicans, the American public would do well to
remember the democratic values it stands for and the fact that the Iraq war
has not only undermined those values but taken a heavy toll of American
lives and resources.
As things stand, it does appear that the American electorate is
divided in its opinion. A recent CBS News poll, in fact, shows that the
president's overall job approval rating of 50% ties with the lowest ratings
he has received since assuming office, and his disapproval rating (45%) is
at its highest. Significantly, ratings on his ability to handle an
international crisis, and perceptions of the respect he receives from
international leaders has fallen back to pre-9/11 levels, after have risen
sharply in the wake of the terrorist attacks and the capture of Saddam
Hussein. The fall in ratings is attributed to continuing attacks on
American troops in Iraq, and the costs of the war (CBS News Polls, Jan. 17,
2004).
These ratings match similar findings by other polls. The Los Angeles
Times poll, for instance, reveals that Americans remained split along lines
of gender, race, and cultural values on the issue of Bush's reelection,
with 42% stating that...