The Chinese Economic Debate

             When a bubble economy is thriving, people are prone to believe that it will
             last forever (Ignatius, 2004). This general feeling existed in Japan in the
             1980s and in America in the late '90s. Today, many people believe that this
             is what is happening in China -- the "miracle economy," where returns have
             been so consistently high that people are starting to view investing in China
             On any of the capital's boulevards, billboards advertise "Season's Park," a
             brand-new fancy apartment complex that bills itself as "Home of the Tycoons
             (Ignatius, 2004)." The entrance is features images of the Statue of Liberty
             and the Arc de Triomphe, and there's a telephone "hotline" so newly
             wealthy Chinese residents can rush to buy property there.
             The new Chinese leadership understands the danger of overheating and is
             now taking slow yet steady steps to slow the economy from last year's 9.1
             percent growth rate. However, like Alan Greenspan's 1996 warning about
             "irrational exuberance" on Wall Street, the Chinese government's warnings
             have had little effect. During the first quarter of 2004, economic growth
             actually increased to 9.7 percent. "Some people think that China's
             economy is already overheated; others think
             it's in the process of becoming overheated," explained Zhao Qizheng, the
             minister who runs the State Council Information Office (Ignatius, 2004). He
             believes that China needs "sustainable" growth.
             Li Ruogu, the deputy governor of China's central bank, has an even sharper
             opinion: "If credit is growing as fast as it has been, we will be concerned
             about a bubble," he said (Ignatius, 2004), adding that the central bank had
             raised reserve requirements for Chinese banks this month mainly "to send
             out the message that we are concerned about overheating of the economy."
             Li warned that the central bank may raise interest rates soon, a move many
             analysts think is long overdue (Ignatius, 2004). Li said in...

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